Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks' RB Blueprint for Week 6
Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks' RB Blueprint for Week 6
Hayden WinksWed, October 14, 2026 at 5:14 PM UTC
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Fantasy football analyst Hayden Winks breaks down the blueprint to the RB position in Week 6.
The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be this RB column, a WR column on Thursdays and a combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.
It's impossible to get every ranking thoroughly early in the week, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available.
1. Kenneth Walker III (vs. LAC) - 109.5 proj. total yards
Walker sits as the RB2 in half PPR points per game on RB2 usage, averaging 134 rushing yards on 22 carries as the centerpiece of a Super Bowl-caliber offense. He should be well rested off the bye.
The Chargers rank 13th in half PPR points allowed to running backs, having surrendered big games to James Cook III (RB6) and Emanuel Wilson (RB6) over their last three outings. Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points with an implied total of 25.5 points (eighth).
2. Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN) - 111.5 proj. total yards
Taylor is the RB7 on RB7 usage, handling 20.0 carries (RB5) and 2.6 receptions (RB20) per game. He has scored four rushing touchdowns across his last four starts while seeing at least three targets in every game. The Colts offense isn't stressing all blades of grass right now, nor is it consistently winning the trenches. This has dropped Taylor a slight tier versus last year but won't move him off a weekly top-five ranking.
Tennessee sits 19th in half PPR points allowed to opposing backfields, holding running backs to 16.1 points per game over their last four contests. They have a strong DL, but game script ultimately makes this a good matchup for Taylor, even if DT Jeffery Simmons is a total problem. Indianapolis enters as a seven-point favorite with an implied team total of 25.75 points (sixth). Taylor has a three-game streak against Tennessee with at least 118 total yards and three total TDs.
All three contests were RB1 overall games. Wow.
3. Bijan Robinson (vs. CHI) - 121.5 proj. total yards
Robinson is the RB3 in half PPR points per game and RB3 in expected points usage over his last four contests, averaging 124 rushing yards on 20 carries. He has topped 85 rushing yards in three straight games while recording four rushing touchdowns in that stretch. Dating back to last year, he's cleared 25+ half PPR points in 6-of-10 games. The Michael Penix Jr. addition will be a net positive, even if he's not as great as he was in his first two games during the rest of the season.
The Bears have allowed the 23rd-most fantasy points to RBs this year, but I don't think that'll hold the rest of the way. They were gashed by a very bad Packers OL last week, paving the way for MarShawn Lloyd's 2-TD outing. They also won't have EDGE1 Montez Sweat (suspension) this week, and the schedule is about to toughen up.
I'm ignoring this as a "bad matchup." Atlanta is a three-point underdog with an implied total of 22.75 points (13th).
4. Christian McCaffrey (vs. WAS)
McCaffrey's YPC is up from 3.9 to 4.7 with more explosives, now that he's back to 12 carries per game instead of 18. He looked a step faster on his rushing TD and another sideline run last week, so reducing CMC's monstrous workload has paid off on the 49ers' end so far. Well, another couple of injuries have hit, and I'm guessing there will be a season-high in usage this week and beyond; they need him. He's the RB9 on RB13 usage this month for context, averaging 3.5 receptions (RB8) and 1.6 inside-the-five-yard-line carries (RB4).
Washington ranks 30th in half PPR points allowed to opposing RBs, giving up just 13.9 points per game. They're crowding the line of scrimmage with extra bodies and first-round LB Sonny Styles has more than lived up to the hype. They did just go to OT last week and will be traveling to the West Coast this time around. A huge 29.0-point team total for the 49ers obviously works in CMC's favor.
5. D'Andre Swift (at ATL)
This assumes Caleb Williams (hamstring) returns and Kyle Monangai (turf toe) needs another week. We'll learn more later.
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Swift is the RB12 on RB9 usage this season with Monangai in-and-out of the mix. He handled an increasing amount of work in the first half last week without him, before game script sent Swift to the bench late in the game. Roschon Johnson simply doesn't deserve the same touches. If Swift gets 75% of the work as he had through the third quarter last week, then he's a walking fantasy RB1. The Bears' RB group has a league-high 29.6 expected half PPR points this season.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
Atlanta enters Week 6 ranked 21st in half PPR points allowed to opposing RBs (17.0). The Falcons were tested heavily over their last two games, yielding 20.3 half PPR points to Alvin Kamara in Week 4 (!!!) and 20.5 points to Derrick Henry in Week 5. Chicago is favored by three points on the road with an implied team total of 25.75 points (fifth).
6. Kyren Williams (vs. ARI) - 96.5 proj. total yards
Williams is the RB4 in per-game half PPR scoring on RB3 usage over his last four games, averaging 20.5 fantasy points and six receptions per contest. His high-value opportunity remained elite in Week 5 with eight targets (!!!), and three carries inside the five-yard line. He's pacing for a career-high 92 receptions right now, when his current best is 36. This brand-new quick out, choice route and angle route receiving role more than makes up for any Blake Corum involvement.
Arizona ranks 16th in half PPR points allowed per game to opposing running backs, though they just surrendered 35.2 fantasy points to Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 5. The Rams hold the top implied team total of the slate at 33 points (first) as massive 13.5-point home favorites. Williams has averaged 111 total yards in his last six games against the Cardinals, and it doesn't feel like it'll stop now.
7. Derrick Henry (at CLE) - 92.5 proj. total yards
Henry is the RB4 on RB5 usage, leading all backs with 22.6 carries per game. The Ravens haven't been at full health on offense yet, and new OC Declan Doyle has made the most of it. The offense feels poised, even with first-round LG Vega Ioane temporarily moving to C. They'll have Cam Jurgens there moving forward, and Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers should be ready for Week 6 after trading injuries so far. The floor and ceiling remain for The Big Dog.
This is an eruption spot. The Browns have allowed the 26th-most fantasy points to RBs (15.7 half PPR per game), but they recently have suffered injuries to two impactful DTs. Braelon Allen ran it up the gut in last week's slop to the tune of an RB6 finish, and Jaylen Warren had 126 scoreless yards (with a turf monster) the week prior. Henry will look to make a four-game streak of 90+ total yards by Cleveland's opposing RB. Henry was the RB7 on 19.2 fantasy points last time out against them in Week 11 of 2025, when Myles Garrett was available. The Ravens project for 22.5 points (14th) for now.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
8. James Cook III (at LV) - 104.5 proj. total yards
Cook's position-high 14 fumbles since 2023 are a reason for frustration if you're a Bills fan, but for fantasy football, this is a nothing burger. Cook is the RB5 in half PPR points per game on RB9 expected points over his last four games, despite facing three Super Bowl contenders. He's still averaging 19.0 carries per game and 106 rush YPG (third) as one of the best cutback runners in the league. Cook's promised receiving role hasn't budged at all (1.4 receptions per game are RB38), but that's only enough to keep him out of truly elite RB1 status.
The Raiders have allowed the 11th-most half PPR points per game to opposing RBs at 20.4, and that number sits at 23.4 points per game over their last four contests. Las Vegas surrendered 177 rushing yards and two scores to Kenneth Walker III in Week 4, followed by 16.0 half PPR points to Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 5. Buffalo is a 6-point road favorite with an implied team total of 29.75 points (second).
9. Javonte Williams (at GB) - 89.5 proj. total yards
Williams is the clear lead back for an elite scoring offense. He's the RB8 on RB8 usage this season, with three top-10 RB finishes to date. His 3.4 receptions per game (RB11) keep him game script independent, and his 11 inside-the-five-yard line carries (RB2) showcase his weekly ceiling.
This is an eruption spot. Green Bay is allowing the second-most half PPR points per game to opposing RBs (26.4), recently surrendering 194 rushing yards to Bijan Robinson in Week 3 and an RB12 finish for D'Andre Swift with a backup QB. Dallas heads on the road as a 1.5-point underdog with an implied team total of 25.5 points (seventh). This is a strong matchup for all Cowboys, especially with superstar LG Tyler Smith back in the mix.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
10. Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NYJ)
Stevenson is going to carry the load with TreVeyon Henderson (high-ankle sprain) going down early last week. Patriots RB3 Corey Kiner had an inexcusable fumble right away, further cementing Stevenson's incoming heavy workload. He was the RB14 and RB16 in expected half PPR points in his two games with an injured Henderson, and New England appeared to get its mojo back last week. Stevenson popped on film, breaking tackles consistently against Vegas. He's also caught three passes in each of his last three outings to round out his fringe fantasy RB1 profile.
The Jets defense has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs (21.7 PG), ceding RB4 and RB1 overall outings to Kyle Monangai and Jahmyr Gibbs, respectively, in recent outings. The Patriots' loss of LT Will Campbell (knee) doesn't appear to be a big deal with top-40 pick Caleb Lomu stepping up last week. A 25.25-point team total (ninth) awaits as touchdown favorites at home. That's an ideal game script for the big fella.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
11. Ashton Jeanty (vs. BUF) - 84.5 proj. total yards
I wrote about Jeanty's film and some advanced stats in my Week 5 Film Notes column. His indecisiveness and lack of initial burst have hurt his efficiency, beyond the Raiders OL still lacking enough power to push piles.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
Purely for fantasy, Jeanty is still a fringe RB1, even if things aren't nearly as smooth as they were in Week 1 when he was the RB5 on RB2 usage. Since then, he's the RB21 on RB6 usage, thanks to a wild 4.0 receptions per game (RB5) and a few more drops beyond that. His expected half PPR points have dropped in four straight games, however, possibly as they scale his role back with foot and ankle injuries. It's been Mike Washington Jr. at times, but last week's thorn was pass protector Dylan Laube. Jeanty’s snap rate bottomed out to 53%. It was at 74%, 81%, 84% and 67% before.
Buffalo has been generous to RBs this season, ranking fifth in most half PPR points allowed (24.0 points per game). The Bills surrendered 27.4 half PPR points to David Montgomery in Week 1, 20.3 points to Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 2, 16.9 points to Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 4 and then both Rams RBs got home on Monday Night Football last week. The Raiders head into this home matchup as six-point underdogs with an implied team total of 23.25 points (11th). Buffalo's defense has to be somewhat tired given the schedule and high-snap game vs. the Rams.
12. Jaylen Warren (at TB) - 87.5 proj. total yards
With Rico Dowdle (toe) expected to return, Mike McCarthy said this in Week 5: "Jaylen is our featured player right now."
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
13. Chuba Hubbard (at PHI) - 84.5 proj. total yards
Coming off his bye, Hubbard ranks as the RB5 in per-game half PPR scoring on RB20 usage. He has scored five total touchdowns across that stretch, generating 15.3 carries and 76.5 rushing yards per game (RB11). Dating back to the NFL Playoffs last year, Hubbard has cleared 13.0 half PPR points and 13.0 expected half PPR points in five straight games. There's no sign of August psyop Jonathan Brooks either.
The Eagles have been mediocre against fantasy RBs so far, but DT Jalen Carter played to his potential last week and All-Pro LB Zack Baun returned to the field. This should be back to a top-five defense against the run, despite showing weaknesses to Kyren Williams (RB1 in Week 4) and others throughout the year. Carolina enters as a 1.5-point road underdog with an implied team total of 20 points (22nd). We'll see which of their injured offensive linemen can play later on.
14. Bhayshul Tuten (vs. HOU) - 75.5 proj. total yards
Tuten handled a season-high 22 carries for 72 rushing yards in Week 5, posting 17.0 expected half PPR points (RB10). Over his last four games, he ranks as the RB16 on RB19 usage. Tuten has fully separated from Chris Rodriguez Jr. between the 10s, but the Jaguars still do weird things in short-yardage, which has kept Tuten from fully breaking out. Tuten is the RB10 in carries and is breaking tackles at an elite clip, but they've only given him 1.8 receptions per game (RB34). It all averages out to upside RB2 value.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The matchup is a very difficult one, especially with RT Anton Harrison (knee) out. The Texans have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs and the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Offenses have a top-three neutral pass rate against them because of how dominant their DL is. Aside from Javonte Williams' three red zone-TD cleanup game in Week 4, Houston has been dominant up front. Jacksonville carries an implied team total of 22.75 points (13th) as 3-point home favorites.
15. Braelon Allen (at NE)
Allen is a total brick house. I spit my coffee when he trucked CB Denzel Ward in Week 5. Allen also found some space on the perimeter in Week 5, so this isn't exactly a cloud of dust approach. Allen has been the RB28 and RB13 in usage as the clear-cut starter, and that RB28 outing came on the fourth-fewest snaps by an offense in NFL history. He's playing just about every snap, and Isaiah Davis had an inexcusable fumble on his change-of-pace snap going into halftime last week. Allen is an upside RB2 as long as Breece Hall misses another game.
New England currently ranks 14th in half PPR points allowed (19.2) to enemy backfields, but they feel better than that on tape and flirted with best fantasy RB defense last season. The Jets will match with physicality up front, but this is a bar fight. The Jets are 7-point road underdogs with an implied team total of 18.25 points (26th).
16. Emanuel Wilson (at DEN) - 80.5 proj. total yards
Wilson has handled heavy rushing volume, logging at least 20 carries in three of his last four games. Over that stretch, he sits as the RB17 in per-game half PPR scoring on the RB13 usage. The fumbles are a concern, but less so with George Holani also fumbling, his for a dang touchdown. The Seahawks simply don't have another back to turn to right now, so we continue to ride him as a fantasy RB2.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Broncos sit eighth in half PPR points allowed to RBs, conceding 22.9 points per game to the position on the season. Their LBs have missed a staggering amount of tackles on tape, including a few of them on a long TD run from Kimani Vidal of all backs. Christian McCaffrey (RB19), Kyren Williams (RB9) and Bhayshul Tuten (RB12) have been solid RB2s this month against them. Seattle enters the road matchup with an implied team total of 21.75 points (17th) as 3-point favorites. It's a short week.
17. Bucky Irving (vs. PIT) - 76.5 proj. total yards
Hand up. Hater Hayden got this one as wrong as possible last week. Hopefully you ignored all that ...
Irving went from being subbed out in short-yardage in Week 4 to handling the goal-line role on separate occasions last week. He also ripped off an awesome explosive on a run play that didn't appear to be going anywhere. His style of running is extremely unique. He finished as the RB3 overall (30.5) on RB3 usage (21.9 expected points). Among UDFA rookie starters, Jalon Daniels is as good as it gets. There is a better projection than originally expected here, at least assuming the coaching staff doesn't change their RB roles again.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Steelers are a tough matchup. Tampa Bay only projects for 18.75 points (24th), and this relentless Pittsburgh pass rush could make Daniels uncomfortable. The Steelers just held Jonathan Taylor to 82 scoreless total yards and did the same with Chase Brown weeks before that.
18. Woody Marks (at JAX) - 65.5 proj. total yards
Marks set season highs in just about all categories last week after David Montgomery (groin) left. He was the RB23 on RB11 expected half PPR points (16.9), playing 56 of 57 snaps without Monty. If he plays nearly 100% of the snaps in the interim, Marks has an RB2 profile. The Texans' RB room has averaged 17.9 expected half PPR points this season for reference. Marks' tape has been better than Montgomery's, too, largely because the difference in juice is pretty staggering on top of Marks' comfort as a checkdown and screen player.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
This week brings a matchup with the Jaguars, who rank third-best in half PPR points allowed (13.4 per game) to opposing backfields. They've allowed the fewest points on runs to RBs but have allowed 6.8 half PPR points through the air to them, including 11 receptions from Chase Brown in Week 4. Marks will need them to pay off because there's just no way this OL is ready for this DL. Houston enters the road contest with an implied team total of 19.75 points (22nd) as three-point underdogs.
19. Jeremiyah Love (at LAR) - 57.5 proj. total yards
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After a new right-ankle injury in Week 4 and interesting post-game comments, Love played 76% of the snaps and handled 11 of 12 RB touches in the first half against the Lions, including playing in the 2-minute drill. Because of the scoreboard and load management, Love played just 24% of the second-half snaps, ultimately resulting in 2.2 half PPR points on 6.9 expected points. The Cardinals don't have an excuse for not getting him a single target there. On film, Love was bouncing around with energy and didn't appear to suffer a setback. He was on the field for a play-action TD at the goal line, so we're back to having a pathway to a weekly ceiling if game script can cooperate. I don't think he looked injured, at least. While playing in this volatile role, Love has been the RB31 on RB28 usage this month.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
A matchup with the Rams isn't quite as difficult as it sounds. They're willing to allow rushing yards (seventh-most PG) if it means limiting passing yards (32nd PG). James Cook III and Josh Allen ran like crazy on Monday Night Football as an example. Love should catch more passes this week to get explosives versus these LBs, but that is a total projection. The Cardinals have a 20.0-point team total, as 12.5-point dogs. The risk would be a similar fourth-quarter phase-out.
20. MarShawn Lloyd (vs. DAL) - 55.5 proj. total yards
After Kaleb Johnson fumbled late in Week 4 and Chris Brooks went to IR, it's been almost entirely Lloyd. The Packers mixed in Pierre Strong Jr. in protection, but Lloyd handled 10 carries in a bombs-away Packers game plan. He finished with a truck-stick TD and an untouched TD in the red zone. His 13.1 and 10.0 expected half PPR points over the past two weeks are enough to "trust" Lloyd as a fringe fantasy RB2, while the Packers and everyone else await the NFL's decision on Josh Jacobs. Lloyd is still very unreliable on film, so he's still treated as a very boom-bust option.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Packers get a Cowboys defense that is seventh in half PPR points allowed to opposing RBs this season at 23.6 points per game. Dallas was just gashed by Bucky Irving for 165 rushing yards and 30.5 half PPR points in Week 5, while Derrick Henry managed 21.4 points against them in Week 3. Green Bay is a 1.5-point home favorite with an implied team total of 27 points (fourth). The starting RB on a team projected that well simply needs to be in lineups.
21. Quinshon Judkins (vs. BAL)
Judkins has an eight-game streak going below his expected half PPR points based on his usage. Some of this is his fault, as he's not moving with as much juice as in his rookie season. The Browns’ TE room can't block at all, and the chemistry along the OL isn't good enough either. The good news is Judkins is the RB14 in usage this year, so his bankable inefficiency can still mean RB2/3 value. He's the RB23 per game, aided by 3.6 receptions per game (RB10). Rocket Sanders (IR) left last week in bad shape, and Dylan Sampson has missed the last month. Judkins is a real 20-touch threat if both are out.
The Ravens defense sits 25th in half PPR points allowed to RBs, giving up just 16.7 points per game to the position. It's a difficult matchup overall but not an impossible one. The problem is the Browns are back to an 18.0-point team total as 4.5-point home dogs.
22. Tony Pollard (at IND) - 62.5 proj. total yards
Pollard sits at RB28 in per-game half PPR scoring on RB16 expected-points usage over his previous four games. That is not surprising at all. His ground workload remains fairly stable, handling 14 or more rush attempts in every contest over that span. So is his bankable inefficiency in this disgusting offense. He has an eight-game streak of scoring worse than his expected points. Pollard's passing-game involvement completely vanished in Week 5 with zero targets, too, after drawing four targets in Week 3 and three in Week 4. Tyjae Spears played the end of each half, but he did have a fumble and hasn't turned heads.
The upcoming setup gets significantly easier against an Indianapolis group that ranks fourth in half PPR points allowed to RBs (24.6 per game). The Colts were shredded for 33.8 half PPR points by Jaylen Warren just last week, and they've put out league-worst LB tape throughout the year. Tennessee is a seven-point road underdog with an implied team total of 18.75 points (25th), but there's a fine matchup here for Pollard if you squint.
(Photo by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
23. Cam Skattebo (vs. NO) - 74.5 proj. total yards
Skattebo's role is in decline, both compared to last year and compared to his first few weeks. Najee Harris is starting drives and being utilized near the goal line, and Skattebo is only the RB32 in receptions per game (2.0) after looking like one of the best receiving threats last year. Skattebo also cost the Giants a win with a punch-out fumble in OT, ultimately finishing as the RB33 on RB29 usage despite getting extra looks in overtime. He's the RB33 on RB23 usage this month, scoring below his expectations in four straight games without finding the end zone.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Saints represent a generous matchup, ranking first in half PPR points allowed to opposing backfields this season at 29.4 per game. New Orleans surrendered 27.2 half PPR points to Bijan Robinson and 25.2 points to Brian Robinson in Week 4, followed by Aaron Jones Sr. posting an RB7 finish in Week 5. The Giants are 1.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 22 points (15th). If not for the role uncertainty, Skattebo would be an RB2. He should be considered a FLEX play only for now.
24. J.K. Dobbins (vs. SEA) - 56.5 proj. total yards
Dobbins had season-high usage (15.9 expected half PPR points on 20 touches) in Sean Payton's first game of the year calling plays. That does not feel like a coincidence. The Broncos' run game was broken, and Payton looked to solve it with a dozen Dobbins cutbacks on zone runs. He scored on the lone goal-line series of the game, with RJ Harvey in his usual pass-game role. This Week 5 game should be the most important one for projecting forward in the near term. I can't say the Broncos' OL is playing like the elite unit they were last year, particularly at C.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Seahawks have the best run defense in the NFL to me. Throw the stats out the window. They've allowed some red-zone TDs recently, but they haven't allowed more than 83 total yards to a RB this season. Denver enters as a three-point home underdog with an implied team total of 18.75 points (23rd). Dobbins needs touchdowns, and there aren't expected to be many of them.
25. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at SF) - 48.5 proj. total yards
Croskey-Merritt delivered an explosive 33-yard rushing touchdown in Week 5 on his way to 82 rushing yards on 11 carries. Across his last four outings, he sits as half PPR's RB35 on RB36 expected points. His volume has fluctuated between nine and 19 carries over this stretch, while his passing-game role has yielded just four total receptions on six targets. Those go to Rachaad White. Speaking of which, White stole a bunch of fourth-quarter and OT snaps from Bill last week after the Giants' defense switched to a wild blitz-threatening look that Bill isn't trusted to handle. Game script is a problem with Bill's weekly floor, but he's leading the way on the ground for now as a desperation FLEX option.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The 49ers defense ranks 10th in half PPR points allowed to RBs, giving up 20.4 fantasy points per game to the position. They have a four-game streak of an RB20 or better score, with bad starters (Emanuel Wilson, RJ Harvey) or starters on bad teams (Jeremiyah Love, De'Von Achane) still getting home. Washington heads on the road as 7.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of 21.5 points (19th). We'll see if EDGE Nick Bosa (calf) can return here.
26. Omarion Hampton (at KC)
Hampton is half PPR's RB25 on RB24 expected half PPR points usage across his last four games, but his expected points have dropped in four straight games. Last week's 14 carries, paired with his size at the goal line, are enough to be a forgettable FLEX range, but he ran a route on 3 of 34 dropbacks!
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
He's the RB49 in receptions and the Chargers are the worst offense per EPA. The OL was horrific, as expected, with backups at four spots. Hampton is also a downhill, gap rusher in a wide zone scheme, so I don't see Keaton Mitchell's role going away. Kimani Vidal's snaps aren't going away either, as he's the best pass protector on the team.
Kansas City enters Week 6 ranked 20th in half PPR points allowed to opposing RBs, conceding 17.3 points per game. Their 93 rush YPG is top-eight, and I've felt the Chiefs' new DL depth each game. A 17.0-point team total (28th) and an 8.5-point spread work against Hampton's early-down rushing role.
27. Kendre Miller (at NYG)
Miller is the best Saints RB on film. He has the most burst and power as a runner, and that's all this backfield will get, with CJ Donaldson absorbing almost every pure passing situation as the go-to protector. Miller had 10.2 expected half PPR points last week, with a lot of it coming in the first half of the game at Alvin Kamara's expense. The Saints have rotated between two early-down rushers all year, so that has to be the expectation for Week 6, but Miller would be my new lean for the most production. He's had at least 4.9 expected half PPR points in all four of his active games, with last week's RB24 usage being his season high.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Giants represent a middling matchup, ranking 14th in half PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs. They gave up a long-ish score to Jacory Croskey-Merritt last week but are getting good play from first-round LB Arvell Reese in general. New Orleans travels as a 1.5-point favorite with an implied team total of 23.5 points (10th), and there's suddenly a lot of pressure on this coaching staff and front office to win, per Nick Underhill. This is the sneaky deep-league FLEX play of the week, only if you're daring.
28. Dameon Pierce (vs. CAR)
We'll see if Saquon Barkley can return, but if not, Pierce is the next man's next man's next man up. Pierce handled every RB opportunity after Will Shipley's foot injury, and he's only up against memed RB/FB Carson Steele and memed LV-wearing RB Jayden Blue for touches. Those touches won't go anywhere behind three backups along the OL and some of the worst TE/WR blocking in the NFL, but at least we can pretend they will until the game starts.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Panthers have real talent up front at DT, EDGE and LB when fully healthy, so I wouldn't buy into the fact that they've allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs this season on the second-most rushing yards. They've at least slowed down Jahmyr Gibbs (77 total yards) and Bijan Robinson (81 scoreless total yards) since that wild game to the Bears. Philadelphia has a 21.5-point team total (18th).
29. Blake Corum (vs. ARI) - 4.5 proj. total yards
Corum has operated as the secondary option in the Rams backfield, averaging 7.0 carries and 32 rushing yards over his past four appearances. In that stretch, he sits as the per-game RB38 in half PPR production and RB46 in expected-points usage. Corum scored in the red zone and ripped off an impressive explosive in Week 5 against the Bills, but nothing has materially changed. He's finished between 4.3 and 8.9 expected points in all five contests this year as a deep-league FLEX option during the bye weeks.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
Corum absolutely counts as a FLEX option this time around. The Rams have a 33.0-point team total (first) against the Cardinals, who are allowing 127 rushing yards per game (10th most). Jahmyr Gibbs nearly doubled that last week en route to 207 total yards and two scores. There could be extra fourth-quarter attempts for Corum.
30. Brian Robinson (vs. CHI) - 24.5 proj. total yards
Robinson has been between 3.9 and 12.7 expected half PPR points as Bijan Robinson's change-of-pace thunder. He will occasionally bulldoze into the end zone if the Falcons are rolling on offense, but his floor remains non-existent if Atlanta's offense sputters at all. He's (unsustainably) the RB21 on RB44 usage this season.
The Bears have allowed the 23rd-most fantasy points to RBs this year, but I don't think that'll hold the rest of the way. They were gashed by a very bad Packers OL last week, paving the way for MarShawn Lloyd's 2-TD outing. They also won't have EDGE1 Montez Sweat (suspension) this week, and the schedule is about to toughen up. I'm ignoring this as a "bad matchup". Atlanta is a 3-point underdog with an implied total of 22.75 points (13th).
31. Alvin Kamara (at NYG)
See Kendre Miller above.
32. Keaton Mitchell (at KC)
Mitchell has carved out steady low-end RB3 passing-down volume over his past four games, sitting as the RB37 on RB39 in expected half PPR points. He has drawn at least three targets in each of his last three contests and is getting the perimeter runs as a change of pace to Omarion Hampton's downhill style. The OL and TE rooms are in very tough shape, so Mitchell's explosive chances are severely limited. The Chargers have a 17.0-point team total this week against the Chiefs, who will go crazy with DC Steve Spagnuolo having the bye to scheme against the hot-seat Chargers.
33. Tyler Allgeier (at LAR) - 32.5 proj. total yards
Allgeier enters Week 6 as the per-game RB48 in half PPR on RB56 expected points over his last four games. His workload has remained modest behind Jeremiyah Love, earning eight or fewer carries in each contest while averaging 2.5 targets per game. Outside of a 22-yard touchdown run that lifted him to 11.9 half PPR points in Week 4, he has been held to under 3.0 points in every other matchup over this stretch. Love was the 2-minute-drill back going into halftime, but Allgeier played most of the second half due to load management last week.
The Cardinals are massive 12.5-point road underdogs with an implied team total of 20 points (20th) against the Rams.
34. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (vs. HOU)
Rodriguez has operated as an occasional complement in Jacksonville's backfield, ranking as half PPR's per-game RB45 on RB64 usage across his last four outings. His role reached a recent floor in Week 5 with two carries for five rushing yards, featuring a blooper-reel goal-line rep. He has been the RB23 and RB29 in games this year, but his role doesn't change in any contest. C-Rod has between 3.7 and 6.0 expected points in all five games this year.
The Texans rank 27th in half PPR points allowed to opposing backfields, presenting a stingy setup on the ground. Houston has surrendered just one touchdown to a running back over their past four matchups, limiting Tony Pollard to 52 rushing yards on 14 carries last week. Jacksonville sits with a 22.75-point implied team total (13th) as three-point home favorites.
35. Rachaad White (at SF)
White is the RB38 on RB39 usage this year. See Bill Croskey-Merritt for more.
36. RJ Harvey (vs. SEA) - 38.5 proj. total yards
Harvey is functioning purely as Denver's passing-down specialist, especially with Sean Payton back to calling plays. He had a season-low 3.1 expected half PPR points last week with just three carries compared to Dobbins' 20 touches. Harvey has logged seven or fewer carries in each game and will need the PPR scam to keep him in the FLEX mix.
That's dangerous against the Seahawks, though they've allowed 8.0 half PPR points to RBs in the pass game (fifth most). Denver only has an 18.75-point team total here on a short week.
37. Kenneth Gainwell (vs. PIT) - 25.5 proj. total yards
38. Najee Harris (vs. NO) - 24.5 proj. total yards
39. Tyjae Spears (at IND) - 30.5 proj. total yards
40. Mike Washington (vs. BUF)
41. Kaleb Johnson (vs. DAL)
42. George Holani (at DEN) - 24.5 proj. total yards
43. Justice Hill (at CLE) - 31.5 proj. total yards
44. Emmett Johnson (vs. LAC) - 24.5 proj. total yards
45. Kimani Vidal (at KC)
46. Ty Johnson (at LV)
47. Kaelon Black (vs. WAS)
48. Sean Tucker (vs. PIT)
Source: “AOL Sports”
