OpenAI's 2026 Revenue Estimate Just Got Cut by $20 Billion. Anthropic's Quarterly Revenue Just Climbed to $16.8 Billion.

Jeremy Bowman, The Motley FoolFri, October 16, 2026 at 3:20 AM UTC

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Ahead of its expected IPO in November, Anthropic told investors it earned $16.8 billion in revenue in the third quarter.

OpenAI is pushing its IPO back to 2027 and now seeking to raise $30 billion.

At least one of these stocks need to be successful in order for AI stocks to continue moving higher.

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As the AI IPO race reaches its final stages, one company is ascendant, while the other is fading.

Investors just got a sneak peek into Anthropic's most recent quarterly revenue numbers after the AI lab held a closed-door meeting with investors ahead of its expected IPO next month. According to Financial Times, the company brought $16.8 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up 45% from $11.6 billion in the second quarter. Anthropic didn't report quarterly revenue last year, but based on its total revenue of $4.6 billion in 2025, its top line likely grew in the 1,000% range year-over-year. Anthropic also told investors it was profitable on an adjusted basis in the third quarter.

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OpenAI, on the other hand, appears to be moving in the opposite direction. The rival AI lab has delayed its IPO to 2027 and is now reportedly aiming to raise $30 billion at a valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion.

Unlike Anthropic, OpenAI is far from profitability, and it recently told investors that it expected to make $50 billion in revenue this year, well below earlier projections of $70 billion, which were based on investor comparisons to Anthropic.

OpenAI's reported operating losses of $20.9 billion in 2025 on $13.1 billion in revenue, and its quarterly losses reportedly reached $12.3 billion in the second quarter.

What it means for investors

The success of the entire AI sector is hanging on the fate of Anthropic and OpenAI. At least one of these companies needs to be profitable over the long term if the AI infrastructure build-out is going to continue, and right now, that seems like it will be Anthropic, which already has at least $518 billion in infrastructure and related commitments over the next 10 years.

Investors should keep in mind that the competitive landscape can change quickly as new models emerge, and OpenAI has fought back after Anthropic took the lead earlier this year with new products like Claude Code.

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AI investors should be rooting for both companies to succeed over the long term, and their monster valuations show that investors still believe that they will.

Anthropic's IPO will be a major test for the AI trade as it aims for a $2 trillion valuation. If demand is strong and the stock rises after its debut, we're likely to see the broader AI sector follow suit. However, if the opposite happens, we could see a sharp sell-off in the sector, and it could delay OpenAI's IPO until market conditions are more favorable.

One thing is clear: Anthropic's debut will be pivotal for AI stocks.

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Source: “AOL Money”